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| The Strait of Hormuz (Illustrative Image) |
Gulf Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz… and Talk of Egyptian Intervention!
With every escalation in the Gulf, the biggest energy question resurfaces: Can the region export oil and gas without passing through the global bottleneck – the Strait of Hormuz? The strait, through which approximately 20 million barrels pass daily, representing a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, has no viable maritime alternative, making any threat of its closure an immediate shock to global markets.
But behind the conventional picture lies a network of pipelines – some massive, others emerging – through which Gulf states are attempting to build "bypass routes" to maintain the flow of oil and gas to global markets, whether as direct alternatives to the strait or as compensatory routes that reduce transport time and complexity.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the most prominent of these pipelines, their capacities, and limitations.
First: Saudi Arabia… The Giant Linking the Gulf and the Red Sea
East-West Pipeline: A Lifeline for 7 Million Barrels Per Day
The East-West pipeline, which runs through Saudi Arabia, is the most powerful overland alternative to bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline transports oil from the Eastern Province to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, with a capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day – the highest capacity in the region that bypasses Hormuz.
In recent years, the pipeline has become a pivotal element, especially after Saudi Arabia was forced on several occasions to divert its exports from the Gulf to the Red Sea due to tensions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or the Strait of Hormuz. With the recent escalation of regional conflict, shipments to Asian customers were even transported via Yanbu instead of Gulf ports, before the Egyptian Sumed pipeline was used as an extension for exports to Europe.
Second: The UAE... When Fujairah Becomes an Oil Gateway Outside the Strait of Hormuz
The Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline: 1.5 to 1.8 Million Barrels Per Day, Beyond the Danger Zone
The ADCOP pipeline extends from the Habshan oil fields in Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah on the Arabian Sea, completely outside the Strait of Hormuz, with a capacity of between 1.5 and 1.8 million barrels per day. Its importance lies in the fact that it completely insulates the UAE from the geopolitical risks of the Strait. It has already acted as a "shock absorber" during the tensions of 2025, according to economic reports indicating that it contributed to the stability of Emirati supplies when Gulf shipping lanes were affected.
Fujairah Road Expansion: The Jebel Dhanna-Fujairah Pipeline Under Construction
ADNOC is working on the construction of a new pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day, connecting Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah, with investments of $3 billion and a length of 300 kilometers. It is scheduled to begin operations in 2027, enabling the UAE to export more than half of its production without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline can also collect oil produced outside the country and transport it via pipeline to the port of Fujairah.
Third: Egypt... SUMED Becomes a Global Hub Amid Maritime Blockades
SUMED Pipeline: 2.5–2.8 Million Barrels Per Day from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean
On Tuesday, Egyptian Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi confirmed his country's ability to facilitate the transport of crude oil via the SUMED pipeline from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. The SUMED pipeline runs from Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, serving as a land route that complements the transport of Gulf exports via the Red Sea to Europe. The pipeline's current capacity is between 2.5 and 2.8 million barrels per day, according to data from the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum and international reports.
With escalating tensions in the region and Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt announced its readiness to receive oil from the Saudi port of Yanbu and divert it via SUMED to the Mediterranean, a move aimed at bolstering the security of European supplies. In a scenario of a complete shutdown, Saudi Arabia could rely on a combination of the East-West pipeline and the Sumed pipeline to transport approximately 6.8 million barrels per day to Europe and Mediterranean markets.
Fourth: Iran: A Limited Alternative with Realistic Challenges
The Goureh-Jask Pipeline: Only 300,000 Barrels Per Day
This pipeline would allow Iran to export oil directly to the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, with an operational capacity of only about 300,000 barrels per day. However, operational and political setbacks led to its shutdown after September 2024. Despite its theoretical strategic importance, it does not represent a significant alternative in any scenario to the Strait.
Fifth: Gas Pipelines: The Weakest Link in Hormuz Alternatives
To date, there are no regional gas pipelines capable of transporting Qatari or Emirati gas exports away from the Strait. Qatar alone exports 93% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) through Hormuz, effectively making all Gulf gas dependent on this strait.
To what extent would pipelines compensate for a Hormuz closure?
The combined pipeline capacity of the Gulf, Egypt, and the UAE is only 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day under the best of circumstances – compared to the 20 million barrels per day that pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
This means:
* Alternatives will only cover a quarter of the peak supply passing through Hormuz.
* The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the most flexible thanks to the Fujairah, East-West, and Sumed pipelines.
* There are currently no alternatives to Qatari gas.
According to experts, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel due to the current supply disruptions. Prices could double in the future depending on the duration of the conflict. Despite the expansion of the regional pipeline network over the past decade, the region remains far from having the capability to completely bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
However, a notable development is that the Gulf – particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE – now possesses a first line of defense that mitigates the impact of any disruption to shipping. As new projects such as the expansion of Emirates lines and the modernization of the Sumed route continue, we may see in the coming years an infrastructure that is more capable of absorbing crises, but it will remain complementary and not a replacement for one of the most important energy arteries on the planet.
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