Turkey's multifaceted foreign policy

Turkey has recently engaged in juggling relationships with the Kremlin, the White House, and NATO. 

Analysts believe this policy is difficult to manage in turbulent times. It will be watched carefully in Moscow, Washington, and Brussels should the Ukraine-Russia crisis escalate.

Turkish military industry has made considerable progress in recent years and has been used as a tool of influence on the international scene.

Ankara’s drone sales to Kiev have angered Moscow. A military escalation in and around Ukraine would endanger Turkey’s relationship with Russia, impair its participation in NATO operations, or both.

Ukraine purchased Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones and has already used them to strike pro-Russian separatist forces in Donbas. This triggered a sharp reaction from Moscow.

Turkey’s possible participation in NATO-wide sanctions against Russia would deeply affect the Kremlin’s perception of Ankara’s positioning.

U.S. and NATO activities in the Black Sea and over Ukraine are bound to intensify for intelligence and deterrence purposes, raising the question of Turkey’s participation in combined NATO operations at sea or in the air.

For Turkey, striking a new balance between Russia and the West continues to be a delicate juggling act. Ukraine is now a critical test. Yet, an open confrontation between Russia and Ukraine would inevitably call into question Turkey's rebalancing policy.