While a relaxation in tensions between Turkey and Egypt was plausible, experts did not expect a serious rapprochement happening soon. Instead of a full-fledged normalization, they believe Turkey and Egypt will end up meeting each other halfway at best.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the country wanted to sign a deal over maritime boundaries. But this willingness is currently limited to declarations from the Turkish side, with no tangible reaction from the Egyptians.
Analysts believe Egypt is unlikely to sign a maritime demarcation deal with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean anytime soon.
Egypt has had an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) agreement with Greece since last year. This pact angered Turkey because it has had longstanding disagreements with Greece over the extent of their mutual continental shelves.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis had a phone call on Wednesday evening, after Cavusoglu’s statement, on regional issues of common interest, with a special emphasis on energy and Eastern Mediterranean issues.
Analysts believe Greece would do its best to not let a Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement happen. It is plausible to anticipate Cairo and Ankara will exchange ambassadors and have more ministerial-level meetings, but a presidential-level meeting is not on the horizon.
Last year, Egypt, Cyprus and Greece released a joint declaration accusing Turkey of carrying out provocations in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Egypt has been involved in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum since 2019 without involving Turkey.
Turkey’s tactical move indicates a willingness to reduce escalatory policies in the region in order to bypass any criticism from Brussels and US President Joe Biden’s administration.
Potential sanctions against Turkey’s controversial exploratory activities in the Eastern Mediterranean would be discussed at the European Summit on March 25-26, pushing it to not make aggressive moves ahead of that meeting.
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