Turkey's president Ragab Tayeb Erdogan won the presidency in 2018 with a coalition of ultranationalists and other small right-wing parties’ support. Since then, his popularity has gradually declined.
On the other hand, the growing popularity of the opposition in Turkey has made president Erdogan aware of his vulnerability in a possible snap election.
Although opposition strongly argues an early election is inevitable, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) so far has insisted elections for the presidency and the parliament will be held in 2023 as scheduled.
The unification of the opposition brought victory in key municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara, during the 2019 local elections. The mayors of both cities are potential presidential challengers to Erdogan.
The two mayors who have been taking the lead from Erdogan are Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas; the other is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. The growing popularity of the two mayors is a crucial concern for Erdogan.
Despite all the gaslighting and smearing campaigns, these two mayors serve over 21 million people combined (1/4 of the Turkish population) and provide solutions to people in need.
Rising economic despair is the second reason why Erdogan is loosing popularity. While megaprojects and lavish government spending such as new palaces continue, unemployment and poverty are skyrocketing in Turkey. About 60% of those employed earn minimum wage or below, and 36% of the population is below the hunger threshold.
The last reason for Erdogan’s declining popularity is the dwindling public trust in the AKP’s competency and the government’s desperation against growing leaderless resistance. In the last year, every step of pandemic management has become a fiasco from face mask delivery to vaccine quality and stocks.
The attempt to control every social media post without shutting down the services is an uphill battle for Ankara. Erdogan’s angry outbursts are the only shield left to keep the pretense of well-functioning, competent governance.
The more power Erdogan has grabbed over the media, judiciary and legislature, the worse the quality of life has become for people in Turkey.
The promised benefits of the presidential system have not trickled down to the general population. If the AKP’s strategy was to disrupt, discredit and divide, it may fail this time as target populations are simply too exhausted and hungry.
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