Tensions between Somalia’s federal government and its member states have dominated the run-up to the parliamentary and presidential elections, which are slated for December 2020 and February 2021, respectively.
This longstanding discord has worsened since President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo entered office in February 2017, in large part due to his efforts to exert greater political control over the states, including by strong-arming some of them into replacing their leaders with his allies.
Poor relations among the federal government, regional states and political opposition will result in a breakdown in the electoral framework or violent contestation of results. Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia could disrupt the process and capitalize on any resulting instability.
In February, Farmajo signed an electoral law that would establish universal suffrage, but he faced intense resistance from some member states, in addition to political parties and clan groupings, who saw it as a mechanism for delaying the elections and allowing Farmajo to extend his term.
After he realized that his term is coming to end, Farmajo started creating political chaos by interfering stable regional authorities and minimizing the military operations against Al-Shabab. Today the terror group, Al-Shabab, recaptured all the areas that they lost to Somalia Army before Farmajo term.
Opposition groups, including clan-based organizations, are poised to mobilize against any form of perceived electoral manipulation by the Farmajo-led government, while Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia will almost certainly take advantage of any political instability to cause more disruption.
While neither Al-Shabaab nor the Islamic State in Somalia violently disrupted the actual vote in 2016-2017, both present a potentially greater challenge this time around.
No comments:
Post a Comment