Israeli Nuclear Expansion: Between Ambiguity and Risk

 Archive of Israel's Dimona reactor

Egypt leads the battle for nuclear disarmament in the Middle East

Amid escalating regional tensions, attention is turning to the Middle East, where fears of unpredictable nuclear explosions are growing. Recent satellite images reveal a suspicious expansion at Israel's Dimona facilities, presenting Cairo with a new strategic challenge and opening the door to revisiting the issue of Israel's nuclear arsenal at a pivotal moment, following preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Egyptian mediation aimed at de-escalating tensions.

Recent developments indicate that Egypt is taking practical steps toward restoring the nuclear balance in the region, with a focus on the need to free the Middle East of nuclear weapons. This includes adherence to international standards, the participation of all countries in the region in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and subjecting its facilities to international oversight.

Israeli Nuclear Expansion: Between Ambiguity and Risk

Satellite images reveal an undeclared expansion at Israel's Dimona nuclear facilities, bringing back to the forefront the issue of Israeli nuclear ambiguity and the double standards applied to Israel compared to other countries in the region. 

While Tel Aviv continues to pursue its traditional policy of non-disclosure and rejection of international oversight, the question arises as to Israel's seriousness in actively participating in reducing regional tensions, at a time when Washington is emphasizing the paralysis of Iran's nuclear program.

Reports reveal conflicting views regarding Israel's intentions, whether to build a new heavy water reactor or develop an existing nuclear weapons assembly facility, raising international concerns about a new nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Continued Israeli ambiguity presents Egypt and Arab states with two options: awaiting actual Israeli steps or acting preemptively to ensure regional security.

Egypt as a Successful Regional Mediator

In this context, Egypt's prominent role as a mediator between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stands out. Cairo recently succeeded in reaching a new technical agreement between the two sides, which constitutes a basis for joint cooperation and paves the way for resuming stalled negotiations with Western powers.

Military and strategic expert Mahmoud Mohieldin emphasized during his interview with the "Ninth" program that the current situation represents a critical phase in the history of the region, as Egypt has become a pivotal player in mediating between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), having demonstrated its ability to manage a balanced nuclear dialogue.

 Mohieldin pointed out that Iran affirms its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes, while the international community, led by the United States, seeks to prevent Iran from acquiring military nuclear capabilities. This is in light of Iran's continued refusal to open all its facilities to full inspection, raising suspicions about its intention to pursue nuclear weapons.

Dabaa: A Regional Nuclear Enrichment Plant

The idea of ​​establishing a regional enrichment base to fuel peaceful nuclear plants emerged during recent negotiations. Egypt, specifically the Dabaa region, would be the headquarters of this plant. According to Mohieldin, Egypt has become a pioneer in establishing large nuclear plants in cooperation with Russia and several European countries such as Korea and Germany, placing it in an influential position in the regional nuclear balance.

Israeli Threats and Regional Response

The Egyptian expert warned of Israel's continued monopoly over nuclear weapons, especially after its expanded missile capabilities and tests of submarines equipped to launch nuclear cruise missiles. He explained that Israel has become an international player, increasing the risks to any country in the region, and that the United States provides Israel with nuclear cover within its strategic alliance.

 preventing it from being held accountable for its policies. Mohieldin emphasizedan that Israel's continuation of these policies may justify the ambitions of some Arab countries to possess nuclear deterrent capabilities, given Israel's ongoing aggression against Arab capitals and its violation of the geographical borders of neighboring countries.

Historical Context: The UN Initiative to Clear the Middle East of Nuclear Weapons

Mohieldin pointed to the 1974 experience following the October 1973 War, when the United Nations launched an initiative to clear the Middle East of nuclear weapons with unified Arab support, particularly from Egypt, Syria, and other countries seeking to build peaceful nuclear plants. According to Mohieddin, American pressure at the time hindered the implementation of nuclear enrichment initiatives, and experience indicates that continued Arab and international pressure on Israel can lead to the achievement of nuclear disarmament goals.

Egyptian Diplomatic Efforts

Cairo is working to advance the nuclear disarmament issue within the international community, particularly with the European Union, with which Egypt maintains strong strategic relations. This issue is scheduled to be raised at a forthcoming European summit, coinciding with Arab countries' support for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the collective desire to free the Middle East of any nuclear weapons, whether from Iran, Israel, or any other state in the region.

In this context, Mohieddin emphasized that monitoring the expansion of peaceful nuclear plants and controlling Israeli strategic expansion are crucial elements for ensuring regional security, especially with the continued mysterious activity of Israeli submarines in the Red Sea and Israeli nuclear cooperation with some European countries.

A Nuclear-Free Middle East Under a US Umbrella

The analysis concludes that Egypt is seeking, through deliberate steps, to achieve a regional nuclear balance by pressuring Israel to control its nuclear weapons and creating an integrated regional framework for peaceful nuclear cooperation, with the participation of Iran and Arab states, while ensuring effective international oversight. 

The optimal solution, according to Egypt's vision, appears to be placing Israel under a US nuclear umbrella, while continuing mediation efforts to find a balanced formula to monitor and restrict Iran's nuclear capabilities. This would achieve a long-term goal: a nuclear-free Middle East capable of achieving sustainable political and security stability.