The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a desperate food security crisis. Rising food prices have historically led to social unrest in many parts of the world, and Africa is no exception.
Last month, the World Food Program indicated that some thirteen million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, face severe hunger.
The worst could be yet to come: the Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that over the course of 2022, fifteen to twenty million people in those three countries could face serious food insecurity.
At the same time, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned that more than five million children—whose physical and cognitive development can be permanently damaged by inadequate nutrition—in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are acutely at risk.
The outlook for the region has only grown worse in recent weeks, as global shocks associated with the Ukraine crisis worsen food security projections.
Climate change is also contributing to more extreme weather, and three years of drought in the worst-affected countries have led to multiple failed harvests and loss of pastureland for livestock.
The Tigray crisis in Ethiopia led to famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians, in large part because the Ethiopian government has severely restricted or outright denied humanitarian access to the region for over a year.
Ongoing political instability has combined with climate crises in Somalia to internally displace nearly three million people, further disrupting livelihoods and agriculture.
Moreover, as resources dwindle and communities become more desperate, food insecurity itself can become a driver of conflict as people compete for scarce grazing land and access to water.
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