2021 marks the deadline for the withdrawal of African Union peace mission forces from Somalia. Yet, The departure of AMISOM in six months and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Somali Security Forces is the least preferred alternative.
The increasing violence and the country's uncertain political future makes AMISOM move unlikely, as all of the domestic critical issues remain unresolved.
Al-shabab makes significant use of explosive devices and suicide bombings in attacks against the Somali government, military, and civilians. In the latest clashes on 24 October between extremist rebels and Somali troops, 20 people were killed and 40 injured.
The government's security institutions also needed to be strong enough to take over the reins once AMISOM leaves. Disagreements about the 2020 election management led to a stalemate and successive postponements of the vote. The uncertain electoral process has widened the country's political cleavages, especially between the federal government and member states.
In addition to the political deadlock, al-Shabaab still poses significant security concerns to Somalia and the region. It has a history of attacking regional states who offer support to the ongoing international military interventions in Somalia.
Al-Shabaab has long maintained a complex and often tumultuous relationship with broader Salafist-jihadi forces. Despite the group’s formal merger with al Qaeda in 2012, al Shabaab is plagued by long-standing intergroup conflicts between “globalist” elements sympathetic to al Qaeda’s broader ideology and “localists” focused on ambitions to govern Somalia.
A recent AU Independent Assessment report said the extremist group had boosted its mobility, enabling activities in all areas of Somalia. In September, the International Crisis Group noted that al-Shabaab provides better services than the government itself. As violence increases, the withdrawal of AMISOM would leave the Somali Security Forces struggling to restore security
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