Rising inflation in Turkey is driving down support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development party (AKP), now at historic lows two years before the next election.
Polls show many Turks feel left out of the government-claimed boom as inflation and unemployment remain in double digits, with a majority losing faith in official figures. The cost of living, joblessness and the economy topped respondents’ list of concerns in recent surveys.
The Turkiye Raporu polling agency’s survey this month found its lowest rate of support for the ruling party yet, at 29.9 per cent, and its director Can Selcuki said unhappiness with the economy was the main factor in the slump.
The central bank, which meets to set interest rates on Thursday, is under pressure from Erdogan to lower borrowing costs, even though inflation has been stuck in the double digits for most of the past four years.
In March, the president appointed as governor Sahap Kavciolgu, a former newspaper columnist who shares Erdogan’s unconventional view that high interest rates drive, rather than quell, inflation.
Reining in inflation “requires far higher interest rates and cuts in budget spending. And rent and food inflation are due to structural problems that require more time than the AKP has to win the next election.”, said Atilla Yesilada, an analyst at Istanbul-based consultancy Global Source Partners.
Other metrics also show faster-than-reported inflation, as public distrust in AKP-declared numbers runs deep.
Erdogan has long exerted tight control over economic policy, hiring and firing senior officials by decree. He has dismissed three central bank governors since 2019 for failing to cut interest rates fast enough, and subsequent uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy has eroded a third of the value of the lira against the dollar.
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