Somalia faces bleak and uncertain future

Somalia's President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed called early Wednesday for elections and a return to dialogue after the extension of his mandate sparked the fragile nation's worst political violence in years. 

This clearly illustrated that the bid to extend the term of the parliament and the presidency for a maximum of 2 years was abandoned.

The ongoing violent confrontation in Somalia’s capital city, Mogadishu, is a result of 4-year systematic failures and miscalculations of the incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmaajo’. 

The failure to hold democratic elections and the decision by the Lower House of Parliament to extend both the presidential and parliamentary terms by two more years are proximate factors of the current crisis.

While there are many actors to any complex conflict such as the one in Somalia, the dominant and pervasive role of the incumbent president in contributing to the current chaos by design or by accident, cannot be ignored.

In transitioning countries, the presidency is an institution that mediates differences between actors and guides the transition. Tough circumstances notwithstanding, Farmaajo has clearly fallen short in both.

When the pro-Farmaajo parliament finally extended the president’s term under the pretext of giving time and chance for one man one vote elections, the ghosts of the 90s were awakened. 

The security sector began fragmenting, retreating to clan allegiance and warlord mentality, while political opposition has hardened its position and resorted to the political mobilization of clan constituencies and militias in opposing the extension of Farmaajo’s presidency.

The current confrontation in Mogadishu between pro-government security forces and pro-opposition security forces is pushing Somalia to the brink of collapse since the last straw which is the security is fast collapsing thereby undermining necessary confidence in political dialogue.

While political restraint and consensus-building among the key political stakeholders in Somalia is important in forestalling instability, Farmaajo as the nation’s leader has spectacularly failed to inspire consensus and restraint, setting a stage for the resurrection of the ghosts of the 1990s.

In absence of internal political dialogue and robust international action, Somalia faces a bleak and uncertain future.