Farmaajo, president with no mandate

Somalia likely to miss February 8 deadline to pick president after talks that included Somali president Farmajo, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and the regional leaders of the five Somali states failed to agree on a procedure for selecting a new president.

Somalia's parliament ruled out a possible term extension for incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. Parliament Speaker Mohamed Mursal Sheikh said there was no plan by the national assembly to extend Farmajo's term beyond its Monday expiration date.

Farmaajo accused Puntland and Jubbaland states of refusing to support an agreement last September on the electoral process. But the president’s critics accuse him of delaying to extend his current mandate. 

The September agreement allows for the president and others to stay in office after Monday’s election date if needed, but United Nations special representative James Swan has warned that going beyond that day brings “an unpredictable political situation in a country where we certainly don’t need any more of that.”

The uncertainty is ripe for exploitation by the Somalia-based al-Shabab extremist group, which has threatened to attack the polls and even launched a documentary series on Friday criticizing the president and the electoral process, which it accused of being riddled with corruption.

Al-Shabab attacked the city hosting the election talks on the night the president arrived and the following night. No one was killed, but security forces on the second night killed four attackers and detained two.

Somalia extended elections in both 2012 and 2016 without severe political fallout. Somali watchers fear, however, that this time is different because of the extreme lack of trust between President Farmarjo's government and the federal states and opposition groups.

Meanwhile, Somalia is adjusting to the withdrawal of some 700 U.S. military personnel, a process completed in mid-January, and faces another security jolt as a nearly 20,000-strong African Union force is set to withdraw by the end of the year.

The impasse could usher in a political crisis in the Horn of Africa nation already confronting a violent Islamist insurgency, a locust invasion and serious food shortages.