Somalia's political and electoral impasse

Somalia has slowly been making its way back to the international community. But in order for it to continue in that trajectory, its state-building efforts must primarily be focused on providing citizens with basic functions and services, and ultimately meeting those obligations and responsibilities in a timely manner.

Federal elections that were supposed to be held in Somalia starting this month are behind schedule due to a dispute between the president and his political rivals. 

According to the electoral plan, legislative elections were to be held throughout December, followed by a vote in the Federal Parliament in February to elect the country’s next president.

But opposition candidates are protesting the membership of two committees charged with overseeing the balloting, claiming they are packed with President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s allies, allegedly giving him an unfair advantage as he seeks reelection.

Looking at the ongoing election impasse, one could assume that the Somali political class lacks a shared understanding of what it takes to build a strong state. Stabilization efforts in Somalia have yet to bear fruit due to the absence of a suitable political settlement that caters to the interests of all those involved.

A notable event that shaped the ongoing impasse was the November 2020 Mogadishu meeting by presidential candidates and the joint communiqué they issued afterwards demanding the urgent removal or resignation of the National Intelligence and Security Agency Director, Fahad Yasin.

According to the opposition candidates, the NISA Director has taken on the role of chief campaigner for the incumbent president. In doing so, he has lost any credibility to continue heading the state security agency.

Amid the bickering and political infighting ahead of the now-delayed polls, al-Shabab, the al-Qaida-affiliated Somali extremist group, is likely to take advantage of this volatile political situation. It could try to disrupt the voting process by carrying out lethal attacks, or even influence the political process by trying to secure electoral victories for its sympathizers.