Turkey's Fake Economic Optimism

The Turkish economy continues its continuous deterioration, as Turkish banks face problems paying off about $ 300 billion of debts Because of the weak economy and currency in the country.

The Turkish economy is Separated from reality, which is evident in the “excessive optimism” of the latest economic program announced by the Turkish president’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak late last month, according to the Ahval website, which specializes in Turkish affairs.

The lira lost about 0.5 percent to record 7.8 against the dollar, and its price was 7.7950 pounds at 15:03 GMT. Analysts attributed the free fall of the Turkish lira to many reasons, besides geopolitical tensions in the region, the lack of independence Turkish Central Bank Amid Erdogan’s interventions and opposition to raising interest rates, they undermined investor confidence in the economy.

Also, inflation rates are higher than the interest rate on the Turkish lira, which means that investment in Turkish assets is futile, which explains the pressures on the lira.

The interventions of the Turkish Central Bank to contain the decline of the lira have failed, especially amid erosion Foreign cash reserve Which fell by nearly a third to support the value of the lira, and tourism and export revenues fell due to a crisis Corona epidemic.

Turkey, which for years was one of the fastest growing economies in the world, is paying the price for this growth, which relied primarily on borrowing in foreign currency from abroad, which is known as the debt-driven growth model. The trap that Turkey has now fallen into is that every devaluation of the lira increases the risk of being unable to pay off foreign debt in the short term, and thus more pressure on the local currency. The value of foreign debt in foreign currency that is due for payment within a year or less amounts to 176 billion dollars, while foreign reserves amount to more than 45 billion dollars.

According to Bloomberg, the situation in Turkey raises concerns about obtaining financing from abroad, and therefore the country’s rating has been reduced to “BB-”, which is three degrees below the required rate for investment.

Observers believe that the Turkish economy began to enter a severe recession, as Erdogan changed the nature of the political system in his country, from parliamentarian to presidential, to uniquely rule the country, and turn his country into a country seeking to dominate by force over Its political and geographical surroundings.

Cases of Turkish rebellion against its traditional allies were followed by a series of Ankaras engagements in regional and international issues, from Syria Passing through Libya, Iraq and Armenia all the way to The BalkansThrough the use of military force and hegemony through political ploys and the deployment of extremist militias and mercenaries, which has accumulated the fees of the mainly fragile Turkish economy.