Someone without much knowledge of recent developments could easily, by listening to Erdogan and his foreign minister, come to the conclusion that Turkey’s belligerent eastern Mediterranean policy achieved its goals. Despite Erdogan’s attempt to paint a picture of success, his gambit in the eastern Mediterranean has ended in failure. He backed off when his gunboat diplomacy was challenged by French President Emmanuel Macron and the threat of possible EU sanctions.
Erdogan’s eastern Mediterranean move was inspired by the expansionist “Blue Homeland” doctrine designed by anti-Western ultranationalist former naval officials. The current situation could be considered as a huge blow to Turkey’s foreign policy.
Analysts believe Erdogan’s decision to withdraw the Turkish ship from the conflicted area might only mark a respite until the end of the upcoming EU summit in a bid to dodge possible EU sanctions. After sanctions that could further damage the Turkish economy and his own chances of survival are averted, he may well revive his belligerent eastern Mediterranean policy.
The EU’s strategy has worked. Turkey has backed off in the eastern Mediterranean standoff, announcing its readiness to start negotiations with Greece without any conditions. Erdogan even had a long telephone conversation with Macron prior to the council’s meeting, only days after his verbal attacks on the French president.
It is no exaggeration to say that Erdogan’s belligerence in the eastern Mediterranean conflict has hit the EU wall and that his brinkmanship policy ended in failure. Neither the measured wording of the EU statement issued after the Oct. 1 summit nor the start of Turkey-Greece talks can conceal this.
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