Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology

Al Jaber.. The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is the Most Serious Supply Shock Ever

Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Managing Director and CEO of ADNOC and its group of companies, affirmed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents "the most serious supply disruption ever," noting that the world has already lost more than one billion barrels of oil, with losses continuing to rise by approximately 100 million barrels per week.

During an event organized by the Atlantic Council and broadcast live online, Al Jaber stated that Brent crude is currently trading at levels 40 percent higher than before the Strait of Hormuz closure crisis. He explained that the strait is not just about oil, but encompasses a vast global supply chain including liquefied natural gas, jet fuel, fertilizers, ammonia, urea, aluminum, helium, bio-metals, plastics, consumer goods, and general shipping products.

He added: “We are talking about the entire supply chain of the modern global economy, from the food on the table to the planes in the sky to the chips in smartphones.”

Inflationary Pressures and Economic Slowdown

Dr. Sultan Al Jaber explained that fuel prices have risen by 30 percent, fertilizers by 50 percent, and airfares by 25 percent, noting that “every farm, every factory, and every family is paying the price, and the most economically vulnerable are the most affected by the crisis, bearing the brunt of its negative impacts.”

He pointed to clear repercussions on the macroeconomy, with global growth forecasts being lowered to 3.1 percent for 2026, while inflation has exceeded 4 percent. He added that some 80 countries have taken emergency measures to support their economies after more than 80 days of conflict.

He emphasized: “Even if this conflict were to end tomorrow, it would take at least four months to restore 80 percent of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even the second quarter of 2027.”

He also warned: “What is happening is not just an economic crisis; it is setting a dangerous precedent. When you accept that one country can hold the world’s most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is over.”

Attacks on the UAE

Al Jaber addressed the attacks on the UAE, describing them as “illegal, indiscriminate, reckless, and unjustified,” emphasizing that the country did not seek them and made every effort to prevent war.

He noted that the UAE has been subjected to more attacks than any other country—more than 3,000 missiles and drones—targeting entirely civilian facilities, including airports, power plants, refineries, gas facilities, residential areas, shopping malls, and even the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant.

ADNOC’s Resilience

Regarding ADNOC’s performance, Al Jaber affirmed that the company maintained continuous supply despite some of its facilities being targeted, pointing out that ADNOC’s systems are designed to withstand and test such scenarios.

He said, “We maintained the flow of supplies, working closely with our partners and customers, shipment by shipment, to meet demand wherever possible. We rerouted quantities across the UAE’s east coast and used our global trading network to secure additional supplies for our customers across Asia.”

Lessons from the Crisis

Al Jaber reviewed the most important lessons learned, foremost among them:

First, flexibility is extremely important; it is a crucial factor for success. It may seem expensive until the day you need it, but when you need it, it becomes priceless.

Second, artificial intelligence must be an integral part of systems, not just an afterthought. In crises, the speed of gaining insight and the speed of decision-making are the difference between continuity and disruption.

Third, energy security is no longer just about the ability to continue production, but also about pipelines, access, storage, and backup alternatives.

Leaving OPEC

Regarding the decision to leave OPEC, Al Jaber described it as a “sovereign and strategic” one, aimed at achieving greater flexibility in investment, expansion, and partnership building.

He said, “We want greater flexibility to invest, greater flexibility to grow and expand, to build partnerships, and to create long-term value because true power is not measured by the abundance of resources, but by how they are used to serve the nation. It’s about how they are used to build industries, create opportunities, and protect the economy for future generations.”

Strategic Partnership with the United States

On the development of the partnership with the United States, Al Jaber said, “Last year, bilateral trade reached a record high of $39 billion, and the UAE remained the largest market for US exports in the Middle East for the seventeenth consecutive year.

We have also invested more than $1 trillion in the United States, and there is more to come in the next decade.” Our investments in the energy sector, for example through ADNOC, XRG, and Masdar, have now exceeded $85 billion, spread across 19 US states.

He explained that the UAE invests in the United States "because of its belief in its resources and investment ecosystem," emphasizing that the relationship transcends trade to a long-term strategic partnership.

Energy Strategy and Artificial Intelligence

Al Jaber affirmed that the global energy system will remain based on an integrated mix of oil, gas, renewable energy, and nuclear power, with demand for all sources continuing to grow. He noted that ADNOC is working to increase its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day and is expanding its renewable energy investment to 100 gigawatts.

He said, "We continue to invest across the entire energy value chain, which is why we established XRG to build a more diversified global investment platform encompassing gas, chemicals, infrastructure, energy solutions, and energy systems. We remain committed to investing fully in all energy sources."