Climate adaptation, a pressing priority in the Middle East and Central Asia

Climate change is affecting the Middle East and Central Asia more than anywhere else in the world, leading to dire economic, financial, and social consequences for the regions, the IMF warned in a new report. 

Climate disasters pose a “major threat” to growth and prosperity, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. These include droughts in North Africa, Somalia and Iran, epidemics and locust infestations in the Horn of Africa, and severe floods in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

The numbers are frightening, climate disasters in the regions injured and displaced 7 mn people in an average year and caused more than 2.6k deaths and USD 2 bn in physical damage.

The world needs to cut global emissions by one half by 2030 to avoid further consequences, Georgieva added. This should be done through climate adaptation policies on a domestic and international level as well as through investments in resilient infrastructure and better flood protection. 

According to our analysis, climate disasters in the region reduce annual economic growth by 1-2 percentage points on a per capita basis. And these events are expected to become more common and more severe as the planet heats up.

Over the past three decades, temperatures in the region have risen by 1.5 degrees Celsius—twice the global increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius. This has been particularly harmful for countries that are already hot.

Countries with stronger institutions and climate-resilient infrastructure, for example heat-resistant buildings or efficient irrigation systems, have generally experienced lower human losses. 

The same is true for those with higher levels of socioeconomic and human development, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Despite global efforts to curb carbon emissions, further intensification of climate stresses seems inevitable. By 2050, average summertime temperatures could exceed 30 degrees Celsius in half the region’s countries.