 |
| Gas production in the Middle East |
Gas production in the Middle East is expected to rebound by 2050.
Gas production in the Middle East has witnessed significant growth in recent years, led by expansion plans in several countries in the region, most notably Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These plans are expected to contribute a third of the global increase by 2050.
A recent report, obtained by the Washington-based Energy Research Unit, predicts that Middle Eastern natural gas production will rise to 1.155 trillion cubic meters by 2050, an increase of 461 billion cubic meters from 2023.
Gas production in the Middle East reached 694 billion cubic meters in 2023, representing 17% of the global production of 4.078 trillion cubic meters. The report predicts that global natural gas production will increase by 30%, or 1.24 trillion cubic meters, to reach a total of 5.317 trillion cubic meters by 2050, led by the Middle East, Africa, and Eurasia.
Regional Gas Production Growth Forecasts
Gas production in the Middle East is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2%, nearly doubling the global average through 2050, according to a report by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.
Production in Africa is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5%, more than double the global average of 1% through 2050, driven by the expansion of the continent's vast untapped potential. Gas production in Latin America and Eurasia is expected to grow at annual rates of 1.5% and 1.3% through 2050, according to the Energy Research Unit.
Conversely, production in Asia-Pacific and North America will experience annual growth rates of just 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, which are significantly lower than the global average. Europe, in contrast to all regions, will see its production decline at an annual growth rate of 3.1% until 2050, compared to 2023 levels.
In terms of full-term production projections (2023-2050), gas production in Africa and the Middle East is expected to rise the most by 2050, accounting for 99% and 70%, respectively. North America, Eurasia, and the Middle East will remain the world's three largest gas-producing regions, representing 70% or more of global production by mid-century.
Middle East Gas Production Forecast by Country
Gas production in the Middle East, Africa, and Eurasia combined is expected to increase by 1.07 trillion cubic meters by 2050, accounting for 87% of the estimated global growth of 1.3 trillion cubic meters by that date.
The Middle East alone is expected to grow the most in terms of quantity, with an estimated 461 billion cubic meters of added global production by 2025, representing a third of the projected global growth, led by five major countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Iran.
Qatar's natural gas production is expected to rise to 300 billion cubic meters by 2050, a 77% increase from 2023, thanks to the expansion of the North Field, one of the world's largest LNG exporters.
According to estimates by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, two expansion projects in the North Field are expected to add more than 70 billion cubic meters to the country's annual production capacity by 2050. As for Saudi Arabia, it has outlined plans to increase gas production by 60% to 125 billion cubic meters by 2030, compared to 2021 levels.
The Kingdom's production is expected to continue growing after 2030, reaching 160 billion cubic meters by 2050, thanks to massive expansions in shale gas exploration, particularly in the Jafurah field, which has planned investments of $100 billion, in addition to the commencement of shale gas production from South Ghawar by the end of 2023. Production from the Jafurah field will begin in 2025, with estimates that it will reach 26 billion cubic meters annually when it reaches its peak early next decade.
Gas Production Forecasts in the UAE, Iraq, and Iran
Gas production growth forecasts in the Middle East extend to the UAE, where production is expected to nearly double, reaching more than 90 billion cubic meters by 2050. Conversely, gas production in Iraq is expected to exceed 60 billion cubic meters by 2050, driven by several major projects scheduled to come online by 2030 in the Akkas, Khor Mor, Mansouriya, Nahr Bin Umar, and Zubair fields.
Offshore development projects in the Hail, Ghasha, and Dalma fields are driving the UAE's projected gas production growth over the coming decades, in addition to unconventional gas production expansions, particularly from the Diyab Basin in the Ruwais region, which began production in 2020.
Before that, associated gas production in the country is expected to rise to 20 billion cubic meters by 2040, thanks to projects that utilize gas collection, rather than waste it in the flares associated with oil production. As for Iran, its gas production is likely to reach 400 billion cubic meters by 2050, according to detailed data.
No comments:
Post a Comment