The Gaza Agreement: Ambiguous Provisions Postpone the Resolution of the "Future of the Palestinians"

 Signing the Agreement in Sharm El-Sheikh

The Gaza Agreement: Ambiguous Provisions Postpone the Resolution of the "Future of the Palestinians"

Despite what was described as a historic diplomatic breakthrough during US President Donald Trump's brief visit to the Middle East, the details of the proposed peace plan for Gaza remain controversial, amid ambiguity surrounding the future of the Palestinians and the fate of the occupied West Bank.

While Trump achieved what he considers a major victory during his visit to Israel and Egypt, coinciding with the release of hostages in Gaza, he avoided discussing the many obstacles to peace and the future of the Palestinians. Asked about the two-state solution on Air Force One returning to Washington, Trump said, "I will decide what I see as appropriate for the future of Gaza and the Palestinians in coordination with other countries."

He added, "I'm not talking about one state, a dual state, or two states. We're talking about rebuilding Gaza," postponing the discussion for a later date. Upon his return to the White House on Tuesday, Trump urged Hamas to return all the bodies of the hostages killed in Gaza, vowing to "disarm" the movement if it did not do so voluntarily, as stipulated in his plan to end the war.

Good Sense

The US president signed a declaration on Gaza with the leaders of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey on Monday, committing to "pursue a vision for peace" in the Middle East. The document, however, contained vague terms. A diplomat from a non-signatory country who attended the Sharm el-Sheikh summit on Tuesday said, "What they signed doesn't include much. It's more of a statement of intent. 

No one really knows what the next steps will be." Trump's 20-point plan also calls for the establishment of an international security force and new governing bodies in Gaza that exclude Hamas, the details of which and implementation mechanisms still need to be clarified.

Trump: We Will Disarm Hamas If It Refuses to Give Up Weapons

Despite these complexities, Mona Yacoubian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that "the easy part, in many ways, is what has just been accomplished," referring to the first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

She told AFP: "But what it takes to transform this conflict into a different paradigm and reach a solution requires much more than the vague details presented in the plan." Ghaith al-Omari, a former advisor to Palestinian negotiators at Camp David under former President Bill Clinton, shares the same warning, saying: "Trump has a very good sense of timing and opportunity."

However, al-Omari, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says: "I have strong doubts that we will see the same level of engagement we have seen in recent weeks." He also questions the ability of current leaders to change the situation, especially 89-year-old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who he says has "significantly lost credibility."

What about the West Bank?

Another major unknown is that the Trump plan is far from a peace plan for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this context, CNN quoted Barbara Leaf, former US Deputy Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs under Joe Biden, as saying that Trump avoided addressing "the missing element (in the discussion), which is how (the agreement) fits into a political solution for a Palestinian state."

She added that the plan hints at the possibility of "opening a credible path to self-determination and the establishment of a Palestinian state, which we recognize is what the Palestinian people aspire to, but it remains very vague on this issue." 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state and has strongly condemned the recent recognition of the State of Palestine by many countries, including France and Britain. As for the occupied West Bank, this issue is rarely discussed.

"It will be a major challenge for the guarantors (of the Gaza agreement) to see if they can maintain the ceasefire," Al-Omari says. "But there's also a question that hasn't really been asked because we're all naturally focused on Gaza: Can the situation in the West Bank remain stable, or will we see a collapse?" However, according to French President Emmanuel Macron, "the acceleration of (Jewish) settlement construction in the West Bank poses an existential threat to the State of Palestine."