Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Tensions Continue

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam tensions continue

                     

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Tensions Continue... and Egyptian-Sudanese Measures to Monitor the Nile

Tensions continue between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand, and Ethiopia on the other, regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Nile issue. This is due to the two downstream countries' desire to reach a binding agreement on the dam's operation. The Ethiopian Prime Minister recently announced that the GERD is expected to generate $1 billion in annual revenue.

Just hours after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that the GERD is expected to generate $1 billion in annual revenue, calling for cooperation between his country, Egypt, and Sudan, Khartoum and Cairo responded once again by taking countermeasures, including monitoring the hydrology of the Nile and the operation of existing dams. Egyptian Irrigation Minister Hani Sweilem and his Sudanese counterpart, Ismat Gurashi Abdullah, held a meeting in Cairo on Thursday, during which they discussed and reached a consensus on several issues related to the Nile's waters, while preserving the rights and interests of both countries.

Rules of International Water Law

The two ministers emphasized the need to "fully adhere to the rules of international water law regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), discuss the position of the Nile Basin Initiative, and emphasize the need to maintain the initiative's path as the comprehensive framework for the Nile Basin countries, taking into account the concerns of Egypt and Sudan in this regard." They also emphasized the importance of "maintaining and supporting the current consultative mechanism as the only path toward restoring consensus and inclusiveness among all basin countries."

During the meeting, they emphasized "continued daily coordination and communication between the Egyptian and Sudanese sides regarding monitoring the river's hydrology, the operation of dams on the Nile in both countries, and the operation and maintenance of measuring stations and water quality, to maximize water utilization in both countries and achieve optimal management of the Nile River water."

The dam's "serious impacts" on downstream countries

This meeting came hours after a similar meeting held yesterday, Wednesday, at the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, attended by the foreign and irrigation ministers of the two countries. Both sides agreed on the need to ensure water security for the two downstream Nile River countries and to work together to preserve the full water rights and uses of both countries, in accordance with the legal system governing the Nile River and within the framework of the principle of a community of common interests and equal rights, in accordance with international law and the 1959 agreement concluded between the two countries.

The two parties agreed that the Ethiopian dam "will have serious impacts on the downstream countries and pose a continuing threat to the stability of the situation in the Eastern Nile Basin, in accordance with international law, particularly with regard to the risks resulting from Ethiopia's unilateral steps to fill and operate the dam, related to its safety, uncontrolled water discharges, and coping with droughts." They called on Addis Ababa to amend its policy in the Eastern Nile Basin to restore cooperation among the basin countries.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed confirmed in an interview with state media broadcast last Monday that he expects $1 billion in annual revenue from the dam. He added that these revenues will be invested in other projects, and that Addis Ababa intends to establish other projects similar to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) over the next five, ten, or fifteen years.

Failure of Negotiations

The Ethiopian dam issue continues to raise tensions and disputes between the three countries, especially since the fourth and final meeting of the GERD negotiations, held in 2023, ended in failure and yielded no results. Egypt stated that the failure of the meetings was due to the persistence of the same Ethiopian positions over the past years, which have refused to adopt any compromise technical and legal solutions that would safeguard the interests of the three countries.

It is worth noting that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project was launched in 2011 with a budget of $4 billion. It is the largest hydroelectric project in Africa, measuring 1.8 kilometers wide and 145 meters high. Addis Ababa considers the dam essential to meet its electricity needs. Its storage capacity is 74 billion cubic meters of water and it is capable of generating more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity, equivalent to double Ethiopia's current production.